December 8, 2023

China October factory surveys disappoint, weigh on Q4 momentum

China’s October factory surveys disappointed, weighing on Q4 momentum, according to Reuters.

China Factory output

China’s October factory surveys disappointed, weighing on Q4 momentum, according to Reuters.

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in October from 50.6 in September, missing analysts’ expectations of 50.8. This was the first contraction in manufacturing activity since July.The official manufacturing PMI, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday, also showed a contraction in October, with a reading of 49.2, down from 50.1 in September.The disappointing factory surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery is still fragile and that growth momentum is slowing in the fourth quarter.There are a number of factors that are weighing on China’s economic recovery, including:

  • A slowdown in the global economy: The global economy is slowing down, which is hurting demand for Chinese exports.Zero-COVID policy: China’s zero-COVID policy has led to strict lockdowns and travel restrictions, which have disrupted economic activity.Property market downturn: China’s property market is in a downturn, which is weighing on investment and consumer spending.

The disappointing factory surveys are likely to raise concerns among policymakers in China. They are expected to take steps to support the economy, such as increasing government spending and cutting taxes.

What are the implications of the disappointing factory surveys for the global economy?

The disappointing factory surveys from China have a number of implications for the global economy. First, they suggest that China’s economic growth is slowing down. This is a concern because China is the world’s second-largest economy and a major driver of global growth.Second, the disappointing factory surveys suggest that global demand is weakening. This is because China is a major importer of raw materials and components. A slowdown in China’s demand for imports can hurt businesses in other countries.Third, the disappointing factory surveys can lead to financial market volatility. Investors are concerned about the slowdown in China’s economy and the impact it could have on global growth. This could lead to investors selling off risky assets, such as stocks and emerging market currencies.Overall, the disappointing factory surveys from China are a negative development for the global economy. They suggest that growth is slowing down and that demand is weakening. Investors should monitor the situation closely and be prepared for volatility in financial markets.

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